Diplomacia e Relações Internacionais

Chavismo nao se parece com peronismo, so na superficie

Esta matéria de conhecida jornalista do WSJ, Mary Anastasia O'Grady, está correta na sua parte informativa, mas acredito totalmente equivocada na parte opinativa, ou especulativa.
Ela acha que o chavismo seria uma espécie de peronismo, quando a situação, por mais semelhanças superficiais que possa haver entre os dois casos, é muito diferente.
Perón concebeu uma doutrina e presidiu uma fase de relativa prosperidade na Argentina, ainda que destruindo sua economia, mas não ao ponto falimentar como Chávez (quando a Venezuela tem de importar toneladas de produtos alimentícios, pois sua economia já funciona em bases semi-socialistas).
Chávez vai deixar uma terra arrasada atrás de si, e o mais provável que ocorra, em caso de morte, seja uma luta terrível pelo poder e o afundamento ainda maior do país, o que não ocorreu na Argentina, pois os militares ainda conseguiram controlar o país, que não tinha uma riqueza maldita como o petróleo para contaminar toda a economia do país.
Infelizmente, as perspectivas para a Venezuela pós-Chávez são muito piores, mais sombrias, do que foi a situação da Argentina pós-Perón, ainda que o culto quase religioso por ele, e sua mítica Eva Perón seja bem mais esquizofrênico do que se vê em qualquer outro país. O peronismo sequestrou todo um país até hoje, o que não acredito que o chavismo seja capaz de fazer.
Paulo Roberto de Almeida

The Wall Street Journal, April 9, 2012

Opinion: Venezuela After Chávez

Mary Anastasia O'Grady

Analysts now talk of the possibility of a power struggle between the military and armed civilian factions.

Hugo Chávez's battle against cancer could serve as a learning experience for admirers of the Cuban health-care system, held up by the likes of American filmmaker Michael Moore as a model for the U.S. Apparently it's not all it's cracked up to be.

There are other lessons too. If the day soon comes that he can no longer govern, it will not necessarily be good news for Venezuelans. Indeed, the country's long-term decline is likely to continue. That's because his early demise could make chavismo a near religion in Venezuela, much as the death of Eva Perón gave birth to her messianic image and the Argentine worship of peronismo . Pity the nation that falls prey to a demagogue.

Mr. Chávez's health is a state secret, albeit one that a lot of people seem to know about. When he first had surgery in June 2011, he did not readily admit that doctors had removed a large cancerous tumor from his pelvic area. The government still hasn't said what type of cancer he has.

In February he revealed that a new "lesion" had been discovered. Since then he has traveled twice to Cuba for radiation therapy. He returned to Venezuela briefly last week amid rumors that he would go to São Paulo in search of a better outcome. But on Saturday he instead returned to Cuba for a third round of radiation.

It may be that by the time Cuban doctors got a good look at Mr. Chávez last year and removed his tumor, the disease was already too advanced for successful treatment. But according to Dr. José Rafael Marquina, a Venezuelan doctor living in Florida who claims to have inside knowledge, Mr. Chávez was gravely mistaken if he thought the Cuban medical system could at least buy him some time.

Dr. Marquina has told Spain's ABC newspaper that when Mr. Chávez returned to Havana for radiation therapy this year, the Cubans botched the job. To be effective, radiation requires that the patient adhere to a strict schedule of applications. Yet according to Dr. Marquina, Cuba "suspended" the treatment when Colombian President Juan Manuel Santos visited the island, presumably so the Venezuelan could attend the meetings. He also claims the areas where the radiation was applied were not properly marked, something he says is important to ensure efficacy. He told ABC that the Cuban medics thought it was unnecessary but that a Brazilian doctor later recommended it.

Dr. Marquina told ABC that Mr. Chávez's cancer has metastasized into the liver, the adrenal glands and the bladder, and that Cuban doctors did not want to operate again for fear of complications. That leaves radiation the last hope. If he responds well to further treatments, the Venezuelan doctor told ABC, he might live until next spring. Otherwise, he may not last the year.

Forecasting such things is not easy even when the medical records of the patient are available. So it is important to recognize that at this point independent analysis has to be treated as speculation.

Mr. Chávez insists that his Cuban treatments are working and that he is ready to govern the country for another six years should he win the presidential election in October. But at Holy Thursday services in his home state of Barinas he let slip that things might be otherwise. "Give me your crown, Jesus. Give me your cross, your thorns so that I may bleed. But give me life, because I have more to do for this country and these people. Do not take me yet," a teary eyed Mr. Chávez pleaded.

In a country run by one man for the past 13 years, it is impossible to overestimate the popular hunger for information on Mr. Chávez's condition. Even the many who dislike the strongman are worried about what might happen if he fails to prepare for his demise by naming a successor.

Increased violence is one likely outcome. The United Venezuelan Socialist Party (PSUV) and Mr. Chávez's government are almost one and the same and both have become radicalized. Dissent is expressly forbidden, as evidenced by last month's expulsion from the party of the governor of Monagas for his audacious questioning of the safety of drinking water from a local river after an oil spill.

Analysts now talk of the possibility of a struggle between the military and civilian factions that are armed. Independent of the military, the National Guard runs narcotics-trafficking routes through the country and the lucrative gasoline-smuggling businesses at the Colombian border. It also has a financial stake in who succeeds Mr. Chávez.

Mr. Chávez manages to keep the factions in line, but his death without a will is likely to provoke a free-for-all. The winner could seize the mantle of the sainted revolutionary and use it to put a new lock on power. Mr. Chávez would be gone but chavismo would live on.

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