Diplomacia e Relações Internacionais

Transacoes correntes deterioradas: Brasil caminha para uma crise?

Brazil Macro Flash: Current Account Continues to Deteriorate in May

Citigroup, 21/06/2013

In May, the current account amounted -US$6.4 billion, in line with consensus and close to our expectations. The monthly results continue to show significant deficits in profits and dividends and international travel spending. Overall, thecurrent account deficit widened further to US$73 billion in the last 12 months, representing 3.2% of GDP. Looking forward, the likely deceleration in economic growth (due to interest rate hikes) together with the more depreciated level of BRL point to some accommodation in current account deficit widening in coming months. Finally, FDI inflows amounted US$3.9 billion in May (US$64.2 billion in the last 12 months), financing a great part of the current account deficit in the same period.
In May, the trade balance amounted US$0.8 billion, services and income balance posted a deficit of US$7.3 billion, while current transfers reached US$0.2 billion.
Focusing on services and income accounts, the profits and dividends balance reached -US$2.4 billion, while international travel deficit amounted to US$1.7 billion, with net interest payments posting -US$0.6 billion.
FDI inflows came in at US$3.9 billion in May, slightly better than our and market expectations. In the last 12 months, FDI inflows amounted to US$64.2 billion, therefore lower than the current account deficit in the same period.
It’s worth noting the significant downward revision in CB’s current account deficit estimate to US$75 billion (3.2% of GDP) this year from US$67 billion previously, with FDI amounting US$65 billion in the same period. Considering our call that economic growth will likely decelerate in 2H13 and thereafter, together with the recent BRL depreciation we see fundamentals pointing to some stabilization in current account deficit widening. All in all, we expect current account deficit to reach US$73.3 billion (3.1% of GDP) this year.

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Diplomacia e Relações Internacionais