Diplomacia e Relações Internacionais

Brasil: governo gastador, despoupador, perdulário...

Do relatório diário de conjuntura do Citi:

Brazil Macro Flash: Further Increasing the Risk of Not Accomplishing Fiscal Target

Announced: Friday, September 28 at 9:30 a.m. (NYT)
Actual: R$3.0 Billion
Previous: R$5.7 Billion
Consensus: R$4.1 Billion
Citi: R$7.8 Billion
Bottom Line
The primary surplus of the consolidated public sector came in at R$3.0 billion in August, below consensus expectations. As a result, the primary surplus accumulated over the last 12 months fell again to 2.46% of GDP (from 2.51% in July), leaving further from the year end target of 3.1% of GDP. The weaker result continues to mostly reflect a drop in public revenues in relation to the previous year, caused by the weak economic recovery and tax cuts. This result, along with the outlook for 2H12, increases the risks of not reaching the full fiscal target this year.

Key Points
In August, central government primary result reached R$1.2 billion, with regional government achieving R$1.5 billion and public enterprises surplus at R$0.3 billion.
The central government’s net revenues grew 5.6% y/y in real terms in August. Over the last 12 months, net public revenues expansion accelerated to 2.9% (from 2.3% in July), below the pace registered in 2011 (9.0%).
Meanwhile, real public spending grew 7.6% y/y, accelerating in relation to July’s figure (4.3%). Over the last 12 months, public expenditures growth stood at 5.1% in August, higher than the 3.4% figure registered in 2011.
The nominal deficit declined slightly to 2.72% of GDP (from 2.76% in July), with net public debt/GDP keeping roughly flat at 35.1% (from 35.0% in July), while gross public debt/GDP reached 57.5% in August (from 57.6% in July).

- Heranca Maldita Dos Companheiros: Juros Mais Altos Do Mundo Ate O Final De 2015...
Déficit de transações correntes em alta, inflação em alta, e investimentos estrangeiros em baixa. Essa é a herança a ser deixada pelos companheiros em economia... Paulo Roberto de Almeida Brazil Itau economic forescasting, 18/07/2014 The Copom...

- The Economist Tambem Critica O Keynesianismo De Botequim (talvez De Pileque...)
Brazil’s economy: The deteriorationSlow growth, stubborn inflation and mounting deficits The Economist, December 5, 2013 A SINGLE economic figure can boost or batter a politician’s standing. That makes it tempting to offer sneak peeks of the...

- Inflacao "dentro Da Meta"? O Que Dizem Os Dados? Refrescando A Memória...
Leio o seguinte, na imprensa diária" SÃO BERNARDO DO CAMPO - A presidente Dilma Rousseff afirmou nesta segunda-feira, 19, em entrevista à rádios do ABC paulista, que a "Inflação está sob controle e fechará na meta este ano...". Mas ao que...

- Transacoes Correntes Deterioradas: Brasil Caminha Para Uma Crise?
Brazil Macro Flash: Current Account Continues to Deteriorate in MayCitigroup, 21/06/2013 In May, the current account amounted -US$6.4 billion, in line with consensus and close to our expectations. The monthly results continue to show significant deficits...

- Economist Intelligence Unit Analisa A Economia Brasileira
Números medíocres, para dizer o mínimo. Em face disso, discursos e tentativa de estimular novamente o crédito. Mas, não é pecado perguntar: de onde sai o crédito, mesmo? Paulo Roberto de Almeida Brazil economy: First-quarter GDP disappoints June...

Diplomacia e Relações Internacionais