Diplomacia e Relações Internacionais
Recomendo a leitura deste ensaio:
What Social Science Does—and Doesn’t—Know
Jim Manzi
City Journal, Summer 2010
Our scientific ignorance of the human condition remains profound.
do qual extraio apenas a parte final:
But what do we know from the social-science experiments that we have already conducted? After reviewing experiments not just in criminology but also in welfare-program design, education, and other fields, I propose that three lessons emerge consistently from them.
First, few programs can be shown to work in properly randomized and replicated trials. Despite complex and impressive-sounding empirical arguments by advocates and analysts, we should be very skeptical of claims for the effectiveness of new, counterintuitive programs and policies, and we should be reluctant to trump the trial-and-error process of social evolution in matters of economics or social policy.
Second, within this universe of programs that are far more likely to fail than succeed, programs that try to change people are even more likely to fail than those that try to change incentives. A litany of program ideas designed to push welfare recipients into the workforce failed when tested in those randomized experiments of the welfare-reform era; only adding mandatory work requirements succeeded in moving people from welfare to work in a humane fashion. And mandatory work-requirement programs that emphasize just getting a job are far more effective than those that emphasize skills-building. Similarly, the list of failed attempts to change people to make them less likely to commit crimes is almost endless—prisoner counseling, transitional aid to prisoners, intensive probation, juvenile boot camps—but the only program concept that tentatively demonstrated reductions in crime rates in replicated RFTs was nuisance abatement, which changes the environment in which criminals operate. (This isn’t to say that direct behavior-improvement programs can never work; one well-known program that sends nurses to visit new or expectant mothers seems to have succeeded in improving various social outcomes in replicated independent RFTs.)
And third, there is no magic. Those rare programs that do work usually lead to improvements that are quite modest, compared with the size of the problems they are meant to address or the dreams of advocates.
Experiments are surely changing the way we conduct social science. The number of experiments reported in major social-science journals is growing rapidly across education, criminology, political science, economics, and other areas. In academic economics, several recent Nobel Prizes have been awarded to laboratory experimentalists, and leading indicators of future Nobelists are rife with researchers focused on RFTs.
It is tempting to argue that we are at the beginning of an experimental revolution in social science that will ultimately lead to unimaginable discoveries. But we should be skeptical of that argument. The experimental revolution is like a huge wave that has lost power as it has moved through topics of increasing complexity. Physics was entirely transformed. Therapeutic biology had higher causal density, but it could often rely on the assumption of uniform biological response to generalize findings reliably from randomized trials. The even higher causal densities in social sciences make generalization from even properly randomized experiments hazardous. It would likely require the reduction of social science to biology to accomplish a true revolution in our understanding of human society—and that remains, as yet, beyond the grasp of science.
At the moment, it is certain that we do not have anything remotely approaching a scientific understanding of human society. And the methods of experimental social science are not close to providing one within the foreseeable future. Science may someday allow us to predict human behavior comprehensively and reliably. Until then, we need to keep stumbling forward with trial-and-error learning as best we can.
Integra, neste link.
- Quer Acabar Com A Pobreza? Educacao, Emprego E Casamento - Brookings
Sem educação, sem qualificação para o mercado de trabalho (e portanto sem emprego), filhos de mãe solteira, ou famílias fragmentadas são as receitas inversas para a perpetuação (intergeracional) da pobreza. Simples assim. Ou se pretende...
- Ah, Esses Capitalistas Bonzinhos: Os Rockefellers E O Progresso Das Ciencias Sociais (book Review)
A Fundação Rockefeller começou bem cedo a ajudar o Brasil. Não estou falando do apoio às ciências sociais a partir dos anos 1960, o que foi essencial para garantir a boa "substituição de importações" também na construção da pós-graduação...
- Lemann Foundation Provides Scolarships To Foreign Studentes Desiring To Make Academic Visits To Brazil
Dear All: Since 2012, the Lemann Foundation has been supporting the Science without Borders (SWB) program with the goal of contributing towards strengthening the government's investment, assuring an increasing number of students from Brazil...
- Eua E A Guerra Contra A Pobreza: A Pobreza Ganhou - Cato Institute, wall Street Journal, Washington Post
The War on Poverty at 50 (Share on Facebook and Twitter) Fifty years ago, President Lyndon Johnson delivered his first State of the Union address, promising an “unconditional war on poverty in America.” Looking at the wreckage since, it’s...
- Economia: Ciencia De Curandeiros? Quase... - Alex Rosenberg, Tylercurtain (nyt)
The New York Times, AUGUST 24, 2013, 3:09 PM What Is Economics Good For?By ALEX ROSENBERG and TYLER CURTAINRecent debates over who is most qualified to serve as the next chairman of the Federal Reserve have focused on more than just...
Diplomacia e Relações Internacionais
Tentando diminuir a ignorancia (modesta e lentamente)...
Recomendo a leitura deste ensaio:
What Social Science Does—and Doesn’t—Know
Jim Manzi
City Journal, Summer 2010
Our scientific ignorance of the human condition remains profound.
do qual extraio apenas a parte final:
But what do we know from the social-science experiments that we have already conducted? After reviewing experiments not just in criminology but also in welfare-program design, education, and other fields, I propose that three lessons emerge consistently from them.
First, few programs can be shown to work in properly randomized and replicated trials. Despite complex and impressive-sounding empirical arguments by advocates and analysts, we should be very skeptical of claims for the effectiveness of new, counterintuitive programs and policies, and we should be reluctant to trump the trial-and-error process of social evolution in matters of economics or social policy.
Second, within this universe of programs that are far more likely to fail than succeed, programs that try to change people are even more likely to fail than those that try to change incentives. A litany of program ideas designed to push welfare recipients into the workforce failed when tested in those randomized experiments of the welfare-reform era; only adding mandatory work requirements succeeded in moving people from welfare to work in a humane fashion. And mandatory work-requirement programs that emphasize just getting a job are far more effective than those that emphasize skills-building. Similarly, the list of failed attempts to change people to make them less likely to commit crimes is almost endless—prisoner counseling, transitional aid to prisoners, intensive probation, juvenile boot camps—but the only program concept that tentatively demonstrated reductions in crime rates in replicated RFTs was nuisance abatement, which changes the environment in which criminals operate. (This isn’t to say that direct behavior-improvement programs can never work; one well-known program that sends nurses to visit new or expectant mothers seems to have succeeded in improving various social outcomes in replicated independent RFTs.)
And third, there is no magic. Those rare programs that do work usually lead to improvements that are quite modest, compared with the size of the problems they are meant to address or the dreams of advocates.
Experiments are surely changing the way we conduct social science. The number of experiments reported in major social-science journals is growing rapidly across education, criminology, political science, economics, and other areas. In academic economics, several recent Nobel Prizes have been awarded to laboratory experimentalists, and leading indicators of future Nobelists are rife with researchers focused on RFTs.
It is tempting to argue that we are at the beginning of an experimental revolution in social science that will ultimately lead to unimaginable discoveries. But we should be skeptical of that argument. The experimental revolution is like a huge wave that has lost power as it has moved through topics of increasing complexity. Physics was entirely transformed. Therapeutic biology had higher causal density, but it could often rely on the assumption of uniform biological response to generalize findings reliably from randomized trials. The even higher causal densities in social sciences make generalization from even properly randomized experiments hazardous. It would likely require the reduction of social science to biology to accomplish a true revolution in our understanding of human society—and that remains, as yet, beyond the grasp of science.
At the moment, it is certain that we do not have anything remotely approaching a scientific understanding of human society. And the methods of experimental social science are not close to providing one within the foreseeable future. Science may someday allow us to predict human behavior comprehensively and reliably. Until then, we need to keep stumbling forward with trial-and-error learning as best we can.
Integra, neste link.
loading...
- Quer Acabar Com A Pobreza? Educacao, Emprego E Casamento - Brookings
Sem educação, sem qualificação para o mercado de trabalho (e portanto sem emprego), filhos de mãe solteira, ou famílias fragmentadas são as receitas inversas para a perpetuação (intergeracional) da pobreza. Simples assim. Ou se pretende...
- Ah, Esses Capitalistas Bonzinhos: Os Rockefellers E O Progresso Das Ciencias Sociais (book Review)
A Fundação Rockefeller começou bem cedo a ajudar o Brasil. Não estou falando do apoio às ciências sociais a partir dos anos 1960, o que foi essencial para garantir a boa "substituição de importações" também na construção da pós-graduação...
- Lemann Foundation Provides Scolarships To Foreign Studentes Desiring To Make Academic Visits To Brazil
Dear All: Since 2012, the Lemann Foundation has been supporting the Science without Borders (SWB) program with the goal of contributing towards strengthening the government's investment, assuring an increasing number of students from Brazil...
- Eua E A Guerra Contra A Pobreza: A Pobreza Ganhou - Cato Institute, wall Street Journal, Washington Post
The War on Poverty at 50 (Share on Facebook and Twitter) Fifty years ago, President Lyndon Johnson delivered his first State of the Union address, promising an “unconditional war on poverty in America.” Looking at the wreckage since, it’s...
- Economia: Ciencia De Curandeiros? Quase... - Alex Rosenberg, Tylercurtain (nyt)
The New York Times, AUGUST 24, 2013, 3:09 PM What Is Economics Good For?By ALEX ROSENBERG and TYLER CURTAINRecent debates over who is most qualified to serve as the next chairman of the Federal Reserve have focused on more than just...