Diplomacia e Relações Internacionais
The Next Decade
George Friedman
Stratfor - Global Intelligence
Dear Reader:
Let me begin with a confession: I've written another book. This must surely violate some federal law, given that I published my last book less than two years ago.
The new book is called The Next Decade. Titles notwithstanding, this book is very different from its predecessor, The Next 100 Years. The last book was about a century, a time frame in which all things are impersonal. A decade is the opposite, because it is filled with individual decisions and uncertainty. It not only requires a very different type of forecasting, it requires the opposite sensibility. In a century, leadership counts for little. In a decade, it counts for a great deal.
The book is framed by two concepts. The first is the idea that the United States is an unintended empire of vast power, deeply interlocked with the affairs of most of the world. It is not a question of whether Americans want this empire; it is impossible to let go. The question is what to do with it. Like a child you did not expect and may not have welcomed, it is still your responsibility.
The second concept is what I call the Machiavellian Presidency. I consider three presidents exemplary: Lincoln, Franklin Roosevelt and Reagan. Each possessed a deep moral core. Each fully understood the uses of power, lying and violating the Constitution and human rights to achieve the respective moral necessities of the abolition of slavery, the destruction of Nazi Germany and Imperial Japan, and the destruction of the Soviet Union. When we recall that Roosevelt allied with Stalin to defeat Hitler, we capture the Machiavellian President.
The United States has stumbled into empire. It now faces the crisis of Rome that the empire will annihilate the republic. I argue that of all the institutions of our Constitution, it is the president who can preserve the republic while managing the empire. I also argue that the greatest threat to the republic is living in denial about what the United States has become. The issue, then, is how to manage the unintended and unwanted in the next decade.
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Diplomacia e Relações Internacionais
George Friedman: the strategist behind Stratfor, and his new book...
The Next Decade
George Friedman
Stratfor - Global Intelligence
Dear Reader:
Let me begin with a confession: I've written another book. This must surely violate some federal law, given that I published my last book less than two years ago.
The new book is called The Next Decade. Titles notwithstanding, this book is very different from its predecessor, The Next 100 Years. The last book was about a century, a time frame in which all things are impersonal. A decade is the opposite, because it is filled with individual decisions and uncertainty. It not only requires a very different type of forecasting, it requires the opposite sensibility. In a century, leadership counts for little. In a decade, it counts for a great deal.
The book is framed by two concepts. The first is the idea that the United States is an unintended empire of vast power, deeply interlocked with the affairs of most of the world. It is not a question of whether Americans want this empire; it is impossible to let go. The question is what to do with it. Like a child you did not expect and may not have welcomed, it is still your responsibility.
The second concept is what I call the Machiavellian Presidency. I consider three presidents exemplary: Lincoln, Franklin Roosevelt and Reagan. Each possessed a deep moral core. Each fully understood the uses of power, lying and violating the Constitution and human rights to achieve the respective moral necessities of the abolition of slavery, the destruction of Nazi Germany and Imperial Japan, and the destruction of the Soviet Union. When we recall that Roosevelt allied with Stalin to defeat Hitler, we capture the Machiavellian President.
The United States has stumbled into empire. It now faces the crisis of Rome that the empire will annihilate the republic. I argue that of all the institutions of our Constitution, it is the president who can preserve the republic while managing the empire. I also argue that the greatest threat to the republic is living in denial about what the United States has become. The issue, then, is how to manage the unintended and unwanted in the next decade.
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- Guerra E Paz Na Historia - Deepak Lal
The dove and the wolfDeepak LalBusiness Standard (New Delhi), September 20. 2013 A recent meeting of the Mont Pelerin Society I organised in the Galapagos Islands on the theme of "evolution, thehuman sciences and liberty" brought together some of...
- Book: The New Brazil - Riordan Roett
The New Brazil Roett, Riordan Published By: Brookings Institution Press Published Date: 1 July 2011 The New Brazil tells the story of South America’s largest country as it evolved from a remote Portuguese colony into a regional leader; a respected...
- Os Dez Piores Livros De Relacoes Internacionais (sempre Vistos Dos Eua...)
Depois dos dez melhores, agora os dez piores, por um outro scholar. Até abril de 2009; depois disso, outros piores foram publicados, como provavelmente as memórias de George Bush e de seu inefável Secretário "da guerra" (ele merece o título Donald...
- A Otan, Num Encontro "crucial" (segundo Dizem)
Análise de um estrategista de Stratfor, possivelmente o melhor think tank de pensamento estratégico do momento: Senior Eurasia analyst Lauren Goodrich examines the prospects for this weekend’s crucial NATO summit in Lisbon on the alliance’s future....
- Us Obsession With Terrorism - George Friedman
9/11 and the 9-Year War By George Friedman Stratfor, September 8, 2010 It has now been nine years since al Qaeda attacked the United States. It has been nine years in which the primary focus of the United States has been on the Islamic world. In addition...