Diplomacia e Relações Internacionais
Já se sabia, empiricamente, que o aumento da dívida pública reduz o crescimento econômico, por diversas razões, todas muito conhecidas. Um estudo dotado do necessário rigor científico vem corroborar essa "impressão". Não se sabe por que, no Brasil, tantos economistas acham que o Estado vai "impulsionar" o crescimento atuando de forma desequilibrada em relação às contas públicas...
Paulo Roberto de Almeida
Public Debt and Growth
MANMOHAN KUMAR, International Monetary Fund (IMF) - Research Department
JAEJOON WOO, DePaul University - Department of Economics
IMF Working Paper No. 10/174
This paper explores the impact of high public debt on long-run economic growth. The analysis, based on a panel of advanced and emerging economies over almost four decades, takes into account a broad range of determinants of growth as well as various estimation issues including reverse causality and endogeneity. In addition, threshold effects, nonlinearities, and differences between advanced and emerging market economies are examined. The empirical results suggest an inverse relationship between initial debt and subsequent growth, controlling for other determinants of growth: on average, a 10 percentage point increase in the initial debt-to-GDP ratio is associated with a slowdown in annual real per capita GDP growth of around 0.2 percentage points per year, with the impact being somewhat smaller in advanced economies. There is some evidence of nonlinearity with higher levels of initial debt having a proportionately larger negative effect on subsequent growth. Analysis of the components of growth suggests that the adverse effect largely reflects a slowdown in labor productivity growth mainly due to reduced investment and slower growth of capital stock.
- Brics: Vc Acredita Nesse Grupo? Entao Escreva Algo A Respeito... - Moscou, 30/10/2014
Peoples’ Friendship University of RussiaInternational Conference, October 30-31, Moscow, Russia Call for PapersThe BRICS Countries: International Unstability, Growth Trajectories and Structural Transformations ? In the framework of the international...
- Divida Publica: Quem Vai Pagar?
Não é o Brasil. Mas não estamos muito melhor... Considerem o diferencial entre as taxas de crescimento da dívida, comparada ao crescimento do PIB americano e da inflação. A dívida aumenta mais rápido. O que vai ocorrer? Só existem três "soluções":...
- Economic Growth In Emerging Countries Is Likely To Fall - Anders Aslund
Enviado por meu amigo Mauricio David: Why Growth in Emerging Economies Is Likely to Fall - Anders Åslund (Por que o crescimento nas economias emergentes tende a cair) O paper do Anders Aslund aponta as muitas razões pelas quais o crescimento das...
- Crise Dos Anos 1930 E As Licoes Para O Presente - Barry Eichengreen
Um excelente paper do conhecido economista de Berkeley, aqui apenas resumido, mas remetendo ao texto completo: Crisis and Growth in the Advanced Economies - Barry Eichengreen http://www.palgrave-journals.com/ces/journal/v53/n3/full/ces20115a.html...
- Impossible Growth - Kenneth Rogoff
Too Much Debt Means the Economy Can’t Grow Carmen Reinhart and Kenneth Rogoff Bloomberg News, July 14, 2011 As public debt in advanced countries reaches levels not seen since the end of World War II, there is considerable debate about the urgency of...
Diplomacia e Relações Internacionais
Divida Publica e Crescimento - um estudo do FMI
Já se sabia, empiricamente, que o aumento da dívida pública reduz o crescimento econômico, por diversas razões, todas muito conhecidas. Um estudo dotado do necessário rigor científico vem corroborar essa "impressão". Não se sabe por que, no Brasil, tantos economistas acham que o Estado vai "impulsionar" o crescimento atuando de forma desequilibrada em relação às contas públicas...
Paulo Roberto de Almeida
Public Debt and Growth
MANMOHAN KUMAR, International Monetary Fund (IMF) - Research Department
JAEJOON WOO, DePaul University - Department of Economics
IMF Working Paper No. 10/174
This paper explores the impact of high public debt on long-run economic growth. The analysis, based on a panel of advanced and emerging economies over almost four decades, takes into account a broad range of determinants of growth as well as various estimation issues including reverse causality and endogeneity. In addition, threshold effects, nonlinearities, and differences between advanced and emerging market economies are examined. The empirical results suggest an inverse relationship between initial debt and subsequent growth, controlling for other determinants of growth: on average, a 10 percentage point increase in the initial debt-to-GDP ratio is associated with a slowdown in annual real per capita GDP growth of around 0.2 percentage points per year, with the impact being somewhat smaller in advanced economies. There is some evidence of nonlinearity with higher levels of initial debt having a proportionately larger negative effect on subsequent growth. Analysis of the components of growth suggests that the adverse effect largely reflects a slowdown in labor productivity growth mainly due to reduced investment and slower growth of capital stock.
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- Brics: Vc Acredita Nesse Grupo? Entao Escreva Algo A Respeito... - Moscou, 30/10/2014
Peoples’ Friendship University of RussiaInternational Conference, October 30-31, Moscow, Russia Call for PapersThe BRICS Countries: International Unstability, Growth Trajectories and Structural Transformations ? In the framework of the international...
- Divida Publica: Quem Vai Pagar?
Não é o Brasil. Mas não estamos muito melhor... Considerem o diferencial entre as taxas de crescimento da dívida, comparada ao crescimento do PIB americano e da inflação. A dívida aumenta mais rápido. O que vai ocorrer? Só existem três "soluções":...
- Economic Growth In Emerging Countries Is Likely To Fall - Anders Aslund
Enviado por meu amigo Mauricio David: Why Growth in Emerging Economies Is Likely to Fall - Anders Åslund (Por que o crescimento nas economias emergentes tende a cair) O paper do Anders Aslund aponta as muitas razões pelas quais o crescimento das...
- Crise Dos Anos 1930 E As Licoes Para O Presente - Barry Eichengreen
Um excelente paper do conhecido economista de Berkeley, aqui apenas resumido, mas remetendo ao texto completo: Crisis and Growth in the Advanced Economies - Barry Eichengreen http://www.palgrave-journals.com/ces/journal/v53/n3/full/ces20115a.html...
- Impossible Growth - Kenneth Rogoff
Too Much Debt Means the Economy Can’t Grow Carmen Reinhart and Kenneth Rogoff Bloomberg News, July 14, 2011 As public debt in advanced countries reaches levels not seen since the end of World War II, there is considerable debate about the urgency of...