Diplomacia e Relações Internacionais
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- Ainda A China: Livro E Artigo Sobre Questões Econômicas
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Diplomacia e Relações Internacionais
China dependencia: uma analise do Citi
Emerging Markets Macro and Strategy Outlook: Is China all that's left?
David Lubin, Johanna Chua, Joaquin Cottani
Citi, September 29, 2011
- ‘China-dependence’ is no new phenomenon in the global economy, but its importance has been reinforced in the past few months. Back in March, Citi expected 24% of global GDP growth to be generated by China in both 2011 and 2012. Our forecasts now show this contribution rising to 28% this year, and to 30% next year.
- China, in turn, has become increasingly reliant on investment spending to deliver GDP growth, which reflects the way in which the exceptionally large credit stimulus was implemented after the Lehman crisis. This has caused an upward shift in China’s share of global commodities consumption.
- The credit stimulus remains substantial, and appears to create something of a virtuous circle: since credit extension remains high, so does investment spending; and since investment spending remains high, so does GDP growth; and since GDP growth remains high, asset quality in the financial sector remains healthy-looking. Yet the recent decline in the marginal efficiency of investment spending raises some questions about how easily this virtuous circle can be sustained.
- On the face of it, China seems less vulnerable to an external shock than it was pre-Lehman, since net exports are making a much smaller contribution to GDP growth than they used to — another consequence of the credit stimulus. Yet China’s vulnerability to global slowdown shouldn’t be underestimated: total exports account for more than a quarter of GDP and the export sector employs a big army of labor.
- China has plenty of room to deliver new stimulus measures, both fiscal and monetary. But the efficiency of additional credit stimulus may be weaker than it was post-Lehman; and it might take a shock to asset prices in order for the Chinese authorities to put stimulus measures in place.
- In view of these risks, we put together a very simple framework to help investors think about what economic contagion risks might result from a sharp China slowdown. But this is tentative. Absence of the Chinese engine for global GDP growth would contain very broad risks.
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- Nouriel Roubini E A Economia Brasileira: O Profeta Do Apocalipse Anuncia Crise...
Today's Monitor, Mar 28, 2014 Nouriel Roubini SPOTLIGHTBrazil: Has it Hit Bottom?This is part of a series of Spotlights updating our views on the global economy and asset markets this year and next. Bottom line: Brazil’s growth outlook...
- China: A Grande Mudanca Na Politica Economica - Michael Pettis
Beijing’s new leaders are right to hold back {38 Comments}Posted by Michael on July 10, 2013 in Consumption and production, Economic growth, Trade warThe world is struggling to rebalance its great savings imbalances...
- China: Economia Sob Ameaca, Brasil Vai Sofrer - Nytimes
Epa! Agora a coisa parece séria: o próprio FMI fazendo alertas para os dirigentes chineses sobre a insustentabilidade das políticas atuais. O Brasil, altamente dependente da demanda chinesa, já está se ressentindo da diminuição das taxas de crescimento...
- China So' Cresceu 7,7pc; Oh, Que Horror!
O mundo está perdido: a China só cresceu 7,7%, em lugar dos 8% esperados pelos economistas.O que será do mundo, o que será do Brasil? Quem poderá sustentar agora o baixo crescimento brasileiro?Vamos ter de apelar para os perversos imperialistas...
- Ainda A China: Livro E Artigo Sobre Questões Econômicas
From the Peterson Institute of International Economy: New Book Sustaining China's Economic Growth after the Global Financial Crisis Nicholas R. Lardy The global financial crisis and ensuing economic downturn has raised many questions...