Diplomacia e Relações Internacionais
A China tem enormes desequilíbrios demográficos, em função da política totalitária aplicada desde os anos 1980 de limitar o crescimento populacional, impondo apenas um filho por família. Daí decorreu o também enorme desequilíbrio demográfico entre homens e mulheres. Pela frente, o que se tem é o evelhecimento rápido da população e a falta de jovens para trabalhar.
Aprendizes de feiticeiro esses dirigentes do PCC...
Paulo Roberto de Almeida
IMF sees threshold in China's economy
Source: Bloomberg News
Transcrito no Shanghai Daily, February 1, 2013
CHINA'S economy may cross a threshold between 2020 and 2025 when the supply of low-cost workers runs out, requiring a shift in the nation's growth model, the International Monetary Fund has said.
The world's second-largest economy will reach the so-called Lewis Turning Point in that period, IMF economists Mitali Das and Papa N'Diaye wrote. The concept, named after the late economist and 1979 Nobel laureate W. Arthur Lewis, is linked with competitive losses for sweatshop industries in South Korea in the 1980s.
A "precipitous" drop in the working-age population will push China toward the turning point, and the nation can delay or accelerate its onset through changes such as relaxing the one-child policy or allowing deposit rates to rise, they wrote. Ma Jiantang, head of the National Bureau of Statistics, said on January 18 that a decline in the workforce last year was of "great importance."
"China is on the eve of a demographic shift that will have profound consequences on its economic and social landscape," they wrote. "China would need to invest less, but in better, capital. This would imply switching to a more ?intensive' growth model with a greater reliance on improving total factor productivity."
That involves speeding up the government's efforts to rely more on private consumption for economic growth and less on investment, they said.
The IMF economists' finding differs from that of a 2010 paper titled "China Has Reached the Lewis Turning Point" from the International Food Policy Research Institute which said that "dramatic" increases in inflation-adjusted wages since 2004 indicate the "era of surplus labor is over."
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Diplomacia e Relações Internacionais
China: vai faltar gente para trabalhar, por incrivel que pareça
A China tem enormes desequilíbrios demográficos, em função da política totalitária aplicada desde os anos 1980 de limitar o crescimento populacional, impondo apenas um filho por família. Daí decorreu o também enorme desequilíbrio demográfico entre homens e mulheres. Pela frente, o que se tem é o evelhecimento rápido da população e a falta de jovens para trabalhar.
Aprendizes de feiticeiro esses dirigentes do PCC...
Paulo Roberto de Almeida
IMF sees threshold in China's economy
Source: Bloomberg News
Transcrito no Shanghai Daily, February 1, 2013
CHINA'S economy may cross a threshold between 2020 and 2025 when the supply of low-cost workers runs out, requiring a shift in the nation's growth model, the International Monetary Fund has said.
The world's second-largest economy will reach the so-called Lewis Turning Point in that period, IMF economists Mitali Das and Papa N'Diaye wrote. The concept, named after the late economist and 1979 Nobel laureate W. Arthur Lewis, is linked with competitive losses for sweatshop industries in South Korea in the 1980s.
A "precipitous" drop in the working-age population will push China toward the turning point, and the nation can delay or accelerate its onset through changes such as relaxing the one-child policy or allowing deposit rates to rise, they wrote. Ma Jiantang, head of the National Bureau of Statistics, said on January 18 that a decline in the workforce last year was of "great importance."
"China is on the eve of a demographic shift that will have profound consequences on its economic and social landscape," they wrote. "China would need to invest less, but in better, capital. This would imply switching to a more ?intensive' growth model with a greater reliance on improving total factor productivity."
That involves speeding up the government's efforts to rely more on private consumption for economic growth and less on investment, they said.
The IMF economists' finding differs from that of a 2010 paper titled "China Has Reached the Lewis Turning Point" from the International Food Policy Research Institute which said that "dramatic" increases in inflation-adjusted wages since 2004 indicate the "era of surplus labor is over."
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- China: Entao Voce Pensava Que Ela Era Um Capitalismo De Estado? Confira Isto...
Private Companies Are Driving China's Growth Author: Peter R. Orszag, Adjunct Senior Fellow October 14, 2014 Bloomberg View Share 3 6 In China, the conventional wisdom holds, state-owned enterprises...
- China: De Um Filho A Dois Por Familia? Os Ecologistas Neomalthusianos Vao Se Horrorizar...
Será que vai ter espaço e recursos naturais para toda essa gente, caso a China resolva dobrar de população. Já estou vendo os neomalthusianos se escandalizarem... Acho que recursos e tecnologia existem; e vai ser bom para o mundo... Paulo Roberto...
- Ainda A China: Livro E Artigo Sobre Questões Econômicas
From the Peterson Institute of International Economy: New Book Sustaining China's Economic Growth after the Global Financial Crisis Nicholas R. Lardy The global financial crisis and ensuing economic downturn has raised many questions...
- Ten Reasons Why China Is Different - Stephen S. Roach
Ten Reasons Why China is Different Stephen S. Roach Commentary, May 5, 2011 NEW HAVEN – The China doubters are back in force. They seem to come in waves – every few years, or so. Yet, year in and year out, China has defied the naysayers and stayed...
- The Rising Power Of The Chinese Worker - The Economist
Agradeço ao Jonathan Dill por ter-me chamado a atenção para este artigo. Sempre leio a The Economist, mas é virtualmente impossível ler tudo o que aparece de relevante em toda a imprensa de qualidade disponível na internet. World economy The rising...