Diplomacia e Relações Internacionais
Argentina's economy
Lies and Argentine statistics
Stalinist practices in Buenos Aires
The Economist, April 20th 2011
MOST Argentines reacted with a shrug when their government began doctoring its consumer-price index in 2007. Cooking the books cost holders of the country’s inflation-linked bonds at least $2.3 billion last year. But anyone else who needed to know the true inflation rate simply turned to a clutch of private economists who drew on their own price surveys, data from provincial governments and other official statistics. They reckon that inflation is now running at about 25%. That is far above the 10% reported by INDEC, the government statistics agency, but less than the 30% wage increases public employees have received in recent years.
A presidential election looms in October and inflation, and the government’s denial of it, is perhaps the biggest threat to the prospect of President Cristina Fernández winning a second term. That may be why Guillermo Moreno, the thuggish commerce secretary, is moving to stamp out the unofficial, but widely trusted, price indices. To do so he has dusted off a decree, penalising misleading advertising, approved by a military dictatorship in 1983. In February he sent letters to 12 economists and consultants ordering them to reveal their methodology, on the grounds that erroneous figures could mislead consumers.
Some of Mr Moreno’s targets refused; the rest were analysed by INDEC, which predictably found their methods flawed. Seven of them were then ordered to pay the maximum fine of $123,000 (all have appealed). The financial threat is especially serious for Graciela Bevacqua, who lost her job as head of INDEC in 2007 for refusing to tamper with the price index. She now publishes her own inflation estimate with the help of a business partner and former students.
“The others are companies or foundations,” she says, “but we don’t have clients or assets. The only thing I own is my house where I live with my children. They’ll take it away if they continue with this.” Only one firm has stopped publishing its inflation estimate. So far Mr Moreno has merely succeeded in drawing attention to his own mendacity.
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As estatísticas argentinas de inflação eram manipuladas, isto já se sabia. O que não se sabia, exatamente, era a influência disso sobre as taxas de crescimento, sempre apresentadas como a maior maravilha daquele governo populista e manipulador....
Diplomacia e Relações Internacionais
Argentina: ditadura economica a caminho
Argentina's economy
Lies and Argentine statistics
Stalinist practices in Buenos Aires
The Economist, April 20th 2011
MOST Argentines reacted with a shrug when their government began doctoring its consumer-price index in 2007. Cooking the books cost holders of the country’s inflation-linked bonds at least $2.3 billion last year. But anyone else who needed to know the true inflation rate simply turned to a clutch of private economists who drew on their own price surveys, data from provincial governments and other official statistics. They reckon that inflation is now running at about 25%. That is far above the 10% reported by INDEC, the government statistics agency, but less than the 30% wage increases public employees have received in recent years.
A presidential election looms in October and inflation, and the government’s denial of it, is perhaps the biggest threat to the prospect of President Cristina Fernández winning a second term. That may be why Guillermo Moreno, the thuggish commerce secretary, is moving to stamp out the unofficial, but widely trusted, price indices. To do so he has dusted off a decree, penalising misleading advertising, approved by a military dictatorship in 1983. In February he sent letters to 12 economists and consultants ordering them to reveal their methodology, on the grounds that erroneous figures could mislead consumers.
Some of Mr Moreno’s targets refused; the rest were analysed by INDEC, which predictably found their methods flawed. Seven of them were then ordered to pay the maximum fine of $123,000 (all have appealed). The financial threat is especially serious for Graciela Bevacqua, who lost her job as head of INDEC in 2007 for refusing to tamper with the price index. She now publishes her own inflation estimate with the help of a business partner and former students.
“The others are companies or foundations,” she says, “but we don’t have clients or assets. The only thing I own is my house where I live with my children. They’ll take it away if they continue with this.” Only one firm has stopped publishing its inflation estimate. So far Mr Moreno has merely succeeded in drawing attention to his own mendacity.
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- Eleicoes 2014: Um Possivel Ministro Da Fazenda, Arminio Fraga - The Wall Street Journal
Politics Brazil Ex-Insider Returns to Help Oust President Luciana Magalhães The Wall Street Journal, August 12, 2014 With slow growth and high inflation hurting Brazilian President Dilma Rousseff's chances of winning a second term, a financial heavyweight...
- Argentina: Questoes Sobre A Moratoria - Barbara Kotschwar (iie)
No llores, ni por mi, ni por ella, ni por nadie... Ridendo, castigat mores... Paulo Roberto de Almeida Questions and Answers on the Argentina defaultby Barbara Kotschwar | Institute for International Economics, Washington, August 1st, 2014 ...
- Tangos E Tragedias, 4: New York Times
Argentina’s Currency Falls Sharply Against the Dollar, Stirring Inflation Fears By SIMON ROMEROJanuary 23, 2014RIO DE JANEIRO — Argentina’s currency, the peso, plunged more than 8 percent on Thursday against the dollar after the country’s...
- The Economist Tambem Critica O Keynesianismo De Botequim (talvez De Pileque...)
Brazil’s economy: The deteriorationSlow growth, stubborn inflation and mounting deficits The Economist, December 5, 2013 A SINGLE economic figure can boost or batter a politician’s standing. That makes it tempting to offer sneak peeks of the...
- Argentina: Revisar Para Baixo Todos Os Pibs Desde 2008...
As estatísticas argentinas de inflação eram manipuladas, isto já se sabia. O que não se sabia, exatamente, era a influência disso sobre as taxas de crescimento, sempre apresentadas como a maior maravilha daquele governo populista e manipulador....